Bullpen collapses in eighth, posing questions for next year's team

"The game was damn near scripted exactly how we had it," Shelton said about his bullpen's performance up until that night.

"Couldn't even get two outs to help the team win," Selby said. "Competing their ass off the entire time, pitching was good up to that point. Hitters were putting together good ABs, scoring runs. I have to do my job there."

Selby impressed Pirates brass last year with a breakout campaign that led to him being added to the 40 man roster last winter. He possesses some high spin offerings, but when he doesn't have control, that spin doesn't help too much.

"It's easy to hit a fastball when you can't throw any secondary pitches for strikes," Selby said.

The Pirates were just six outs away from another late-season win over a team playing for their playoff lives, but the offense couldn't bounce back in the late innings, and they suffered a loss that will very likely make the Marlins the final wild card team by weekend's end. The Pirates have a set goal that next year the victory champagne of a playoff berth will be sprayed in the home clubhouse rather than the visitor's. Getting more consistent bullpen work would be a part of making that leap.

While openers and bulk guys have skewed some bullpen stats this year, going by pure relief appearances, Pirate relievers entered Friday with a combined 4.63 ERA (22nd in baseball) and -1.52 Win Probability Added (WPA, 19th in baseball). The latter stat is a calculation that takes the team's chances of winning when a pitcher enters a game and compares it to the chances of winning when they exit the game. While not a perfect stat, it's generally accepted as one of the best ways to measure a reliever or bullpen's impact.

By having a negative WPA, it means the Pirate relievers have generally put their hitters in a worse spot than what they inherited. And that comes despite having the National League leader in saves in David Bednar (38) waiting at the end of that bullpen.

Bednar still has an outside chance at 40 saves, which would be the fifth time a Pirate has accomplished that since saves became an official stat in 1969 (Mark Melancon in 2015, Mike Williams in 2002, Jose Mesa in 2004 and Joel Hanrahan in 2011). He downplayed it when posed the question, but did admit, it would be "that next tier" and that "40's legit."

"I hope that he gets there," Shelton said. "Hopefully, we’re in a situation where he gets there. In terms of that, the biggest thing that stands out there is he went almost a month without a save, too, when we went through that stretch where we didn’t play very well [in May]. I think that speaks to how good he’s been.” 

Bednar's not only been the rock in the bullpen, he's been the glue guy for a reliever group that currently has seven rookies on the active roster: Selby, Cody Bolton, Osvaldo Bido, Kyle Nicolas, Hunter Stratton, Jose Hernandez and Mlodzinski.

"It's the youth and the amount of stuff that they have is really impressive," Bednar told me back in Cincinnati. "... They're not scared. That's my main takeaway, stuff aside. How they're able to attack the zone and be poised on the mound."

There's stuff to like in that group, but it's fair to wonder how many save opportunities never got to Bednar this season because of inexperienced middle relief.

Friday could be one of those dreaded teaching moments for a young reliever who faltered in a clutch spot. So much of what the Pirates are building is reliant on the players that come up through the farm system and the impact they will have on the majors. Generally, that doesn't always include relievers, but when looking at the impact of someone like Mlodzinski, there could be some impact and leverage arms there.

"Tip your hat to the guys in the organization that have helped prepare us for this," Mlodzinski was telling me back in Cincinnati. "The guys who do the scouting, they do a really good job. And then all the older guys -- not that much older -- but guys like [Mitch] Keller and Bednar and [Colin] Holderman who have been there and done it. You can lean on them to help. They've been really helpful for me, and other guys can say that as well."

Mlodzinski wasn't able to keep an inherited runner on third from scoring Friday, but failing to complete a tall task shouldn't detract from what has been a solid rookie campaign. Holderman has two rough patches this year where he quickly went on the injured list shortly after, explaining the slumps. Besides that, he's been reliable. Borucki has been one of the bullpen's more pleasant surprises, becoming Shelton's go-to guy to get lefties out.

The makings of a good bullpen are there if a couple more consistent leverage pitchers could emerge. Nicolas and Stratton each threw two scoreless frames Friday. They were solid outings in late-season cameos. But if the Pirates are going to take the leap next year, they're going to have to determine if they can rely on their in-house relief options and their usual ways of picking up relievers like waivers and minor-league free agents, or if this is a year where they need to be more aggressive and bring in some veterans to help get the ball to Bednar late.

Friday was a game where such an option could have been the difference between a win and a deflating loss.

"Even if it’s a bad night, we can try to learn," Endy Rodríguez said. "Find what as a team we were doing bad and tomorrow do it better."